Introduction
Fresno County:
2016 Population = 979,915
2016 Percent of State = 2.5%
California:
2016 Population = 39,250,017
2016 Percent of State = 12.1%
Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy.
The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Fresno County with comparisons to California and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Fresno County vs. California's population growth over 1969-2016. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.
Page 2 of 13
Population, 1969-2016
Population, 1969-2016
Figure 1.
Figure 1 tracks Fresno County's annual population for the period 1969-2016 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 48-year period, Fresno County's population rose from 408,304 in 1969 to 979,915 in 2016, for a net gain of 571,611, or 140.0%.
NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities.
Page 3 of 13
Population, 1969-2016
Population, 1969-2016
Figure 2.
Figure 2 tracks California's annual population for the period 1969-2016 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 48-year period, California's population rose from 19,711,000 in 1969 to 39,250,017 in 2016, for a net gain of 19,539,017, or 99.1%.
NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities.
Page 4 of 13
Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2016
Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2016
Figure 3.
Figure 3 portrays Fresno County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with California, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.
Fresno County's overall population growth was 140.0% over 1969-2016 outpaced California's increase of 99.1%, and topped the United States' increase of 60.5%.
Page 5 of 13
Population as a Percent of the California Total: 1969-2016
Population as a Percent of the California Total: 1969-2016
Figure 4.
Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Fresno County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to California's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster—or declined less—than California's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly.
In 1969, Fresno County's population comprised 2.1% of California's population, while in 2016 it totaled 2.5% thereby yielding a +0.4% share-shift.
   
 
Population Share-Shift
2016 vs. 1969
 
Share-
Shift*
 
2016
vs.
1969
+0.43%
=
2.50%
-
2.07%
 
   
Page 6 of 13
Fresno County Population:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2016
Fresno County Population:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2016
Figure 5.
Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of Fresno County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2016. The average annual percent change for the entire 47-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.
On average, Fresno County's population grew at an annual rate of 1.88% over 1970-2016. The county recorded its highest growth in 1989 (3.68%) and posted its lowest growth in 2012 (0.67%). In 2016, Fresno County's population grew by 0.80%
Page 7 of 13
Fresno County Population:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2016
Fresno County Population:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2016
Figure 6.
Over the past four decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again depicts the annual percent change in Fresno County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010-2016.
During the 1970s, Fresno County's annual population growth rate averaged 2.18%. It averaged 2.54% in the 1980s, 1.95% in the 1990s, 1.56% during the 2000s, and 0.88% thus far this decade (2010 to 2016).
Page 8 of 13
Population Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Population Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Figure 7.
Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Fresno County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for California and the nation. As the chart reveals, Fresno County's average annual population growth led California's average throughout the 1970s (2.18% vs. 1.67%), outgained California's average throughout the 1980s (2.54% vs. 2.31%), outpaced California's average during the 1990s (1.95% vs. 1.38%), outpaced California's average in the 2000s (1.56% vs. 0.99%), and registered above California's average over the 7 year period of the last decade, 2010-2016 (0.88% vs. 0.86%).
Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Fresno County topped the nation over the 1970s (2.18% vs. 1.10%), recorded above the nation throughout the 1980s (2.54% vs. 0.95%), registered above the nation in the 1990s (1.95% vs. 1.23%), led the nation throughout the 2000s (1.56% vs. 0.95%), and topped the nation over 2010-2016 (0.88% vs. 0.74%).
   
 
Population Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change
 
 
 
1.88
2.18
2.54
1.95
1.56
0.88
0.80
 
1.48
1.67
2.31
1.38
0.99
0.86
0.66
 
1.01
1.10
0.95
1.23
0.95
0.74
0.70
 
   
Page 9 of 13
   
 
Fresno County:
Population, 1969-2016
 
1969
 
408,304
100.0
N
2.07
1970
 
414,886
101.6
1.61
2.07
1971
 
424,697
104.0
2.36
2.09
1972
 
431,918
105.8
1.70
2.10
1973
 
439,865
107.7
1.84
2.11
1974
 
449,886
110.2
2.28
2.12
1975
 
464,183
113.7
3.18
2.16
1976
 
477,162
116.9
2.80
2.18
1977
 
489,016
119.8
2.48
2.19
1978
 
497,564
121.9
1.75
2.18
1979
 
506,332
124.0
1.76
2.18
1980
 
517,679
126.8
2.24
2.18
1981
 
528,891
129.5
2.17
2.18
1982
 
541,500
132.6
2.38
2.18
1983
 
555,873
136.1
2.65
2.19
1984
 
572,091
140.1
2.92
2.21
1985
 
584,070
143.0
2.09
2.21
1986
 
593,621
145.4
1.64
2.19
1987
 
608,831
149.1
2.56
2.19
1988
 
627,658
153.7
3.09
2.21
1989
 
650,755
159.4
3.68
2.23
1990
 
672,302
164.7
3.31
2.24
1991
 
691,569
169.4
2.87
2.27
1992
 
710,263
174.0
2.70
2.29
1993
 
726,859
178.0
2.34
2.32
1994
 
739,835
181.2
1.79
2.35
1995
 
749,534
183.6
1.31
2.36
1996
 
761,409
186.5
1.58
2.38
1997
 
771,391
188.9
1.31
2.37
1998
 
778,615
190.7
0.94
2.36
1999
 
789,405
193.3
1.39
2.36
2000
 
801,288
196.2
1.51
2.36
2001
 
813,021
199.1
1.46
2.36
2002
 
829,762
203.2
2.06
2.38
2003
 
847,193
207.5
2.10
2.40
2004
 
861,035
210.9
1.63
2.42
2005
 
872,470
213.7
1.33
2.44
2006
 
883,862
216.5
1.31
2.45
2007
 
895,933
219.4
1.37
2.47
2008
 
909,630
222.8
1.53
2.49
2009
 
921,478
225.7
1.30
2.49
2010
 
932,463
228.4
1.19
2.50
2011
 
940,496
230.3
0.86
2.50
2012
 
946,844
231.9
0.67
2.49
2013
 
953,762
233.6
0.73
2.49
2014
 
963,151
235.9
0.98
2.49
2015
 
972,130
238.1
0.93
2.49
2016
 
979,915
240.0
0.80
2.50
Source: Calculations by the California Regional Economic Analysis Project (CA-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2017
REAP_PI_CA1400_100_PSN
 
   
Page 10 of 13
   
 
California:
Population, 1969-2016
 
1969
 
19,711,000
100.0
N
9.79
1970
 
20,023,181
101.6
1.58
9.82
1971
 
20,345,575
103.2
1.61
9.84
1972
 
20,584,794
104.4
1.18
9.84
1973
 
20,867,737
105.9
1.37
9.87
1974
 
21,172,548
107.4
1.46
9.92
1975
 
21,536,715
109.3
1.72
10.00
1976
 
21,934,505
111.3
1.85
10.08
1977
 
22,350,247
113.4
1.90
10.17
1978
 
22,838,960
115.9
2.19
10.28
1979
 
23,255,069
118.0
1.82
10.36
1980
 
23,800,800
120.7
2.35
10.47
1981
 
24,285,933
123.2
2.04
10.58
1982
 
24,820,007
125.9
2.20
10.71
1983
 
25,360,023
128.7
2.18
10.85
1984
 
25,844,397
131.1
1.91
10.96
1985
 
26,441,107
134.1
2.31
11.11
1986
 
27,102,238
137.5
2.50
11.29
1987
 
27,777,160
140.9
2.49
11.46
1988
 
28,464,250
144.4
2.47
11.64
1989
 
29,218,165
148.2
2.65
11.84
1990
 
29,959,515
152.0
2.54
12.00
1991
 
30,470,736
154.6
1.71
12.04
1992
 
30,974,659
157.1
1.65
12.08
1993
 
31,274,928
158.7
0.97
12.03
1994
 
31,484,435
159.7
0.67
11.97
1995
 
31,696,582
160.8
0.67
11.90
1996
 
32,018,834
162.4
1.02
11.89
1997
 
32,486,010
164.8
1.46
11.92
1998
 
32,987,675
167.4
1.54
11.96
1999
 
33,499,204
170.0
1.55
12.01
2000
 
33,987,977
172.4
1.46
12.05
2001
 
34,479,458
174.9
1.45
12.10
2002
 
34,871,843
176.9
1.14
12.12
2003
 
35,253,159
178.9
1.09
12.15
2004
 
35,574,576
180.5
0.91
12.15
2005
 
35,827,943
181.8
0.71
12.12
2006
 
36,021,202
182.7
0.54
12.07
2007
 
36,250,311
183.9
0.64
12.03
2008
 
36,604,337
185.7
0.98
12.04
2009
 
36,961,229
187.5
0.97
12.05
2010
 
37,332,685
189.4
1.00
12.07
2011
 
37,676,861
191.1
0.92
12.09
2012
 
38,011,074
192.8
0.89
12.11
2013
 
38,335,203
194.5
0.85
12.12
2014
 
38,680,810
196.2
0.90
12.14
2015
 
38,993,940
197.8
0.81
12.15
2016
 
39,250,017
199.1
0.66
12.15
Source: Calculations by the California Regional Economic Analysis Project (CA-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2017
REAP_PI_CA1400_100_PSN
 
   
Page 11 of 13
   
 
United States:
Population, 1969-2016
 
1969
 
201,298,000
100.0
N
1970
 
203,798,722
101.2
1.24
1971
 
206,817,509
102.7
1.48
1972
 
209,274,882
104.0
1.19
1973
 
211,349,205
105.0
0.99
1974
 
213,333,635
106.0
0.94
1975
 
215,456,585
107.0
1.00
1976
 
217,553,859
108.1
0.97
1977
 
219,760,875
109.2
1.01
1978
 
222,098,244
110.3
1.06
1979
 
224,568,579
111.6
1.11
1980
 
227,224,719
112.9
1.18
1981
 
229,465,744
114.0
0.99
1982
 
231,664,432
115.1
0.96
1983
 
233,792,014
116.1
0.92
1984
 
235,824,907
117.2
0.87
1985
 
237,923,734
118.2
0.89
1986
 
240,132,831
119.3
0.93
1987
 
242,288,936
120.4
0.90
1988
 
244,499,004
121.5
0.91
1989
 
246,819,222
122.6
0.95
1990
 
249,622,814
124.0
1.14
1991
 
252,980,941
125.7
1.35
1992
 
256,514,224
127.4
1.40
1993
 
259,918,588
129.1
1.33
1994
 
263,125,821
130.7
1.23
1995
 
266,278,393
132.3
1.20
1996
 
269,394,284
133.8
1.17
1997
 
272,646,925
135.4
1.21
1998
 
275,854,104
137.0
1.18
1999
 
279,040,168
138.6
1.15
2000
 
282,162,411
140.2
1.12
2001
 
284,968,955
141.6
0.99
2002
 
287,625,193
142.9
0.93
2003
 
290,107,933
144.1
0.86
2004
 
292,805,298
145.5
0.93
2005
 
295,516,599
146.8
0.93
2006
 
298,379,912
148.2
0.97
2007
 
301,231,207
149.6
0.96
2008
 
304,093,966
151.1
0.95
2009
 
306,771,529
152.4
0.88
2010
 
309,348,193
153.7
0.84
2011
 
311,663,358
154.8
0.75
2012
 
313,998,379
156.0
0.75
2013
 
316,204,908
157.1
0.70
2014
 
318,563,456
158.3
0.75
2015
 
320,896,618
159.4
0.73
2016
 
323,127,513
160.5
0.70
Source: Calculations by the California Regional Economic Analysis Project (CA-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2017
REAP_PI_CA1400_100_PN
 
   
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