Marin County vs. California Comparative Trends Report: Population, 1969-2022 Briefing Report Outline: Page 1 of 13 Introduction Marin County: 2022 Population = 256,018 2022 Percent of State = 0.66% California: 2022 Population = 39,029,342 2022 Percent of U.S. = 11.71% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Marin County with comparisons to California and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Marin County vs. California's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Page 2 of 13 Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces Marin County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Marin County's population rose from 203,506 in 1969 to 256,018 in 2022, for a net gain of 52,512, or 25.80%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Page 3 of 13 Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks California's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, California's population rose from 19,711,000 in 1969 to 39,029,342 in 2022, for a net gain of 19,318,342, or 98.01%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Page 4 of 13 Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Marin County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with California, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Marin County's overall population growth was 25.80% over 1969-2022 trailed California's increase of 98.01%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Page 5 of 13 Population as a Percent of the California Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the population growth of Marin County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to California's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than California's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Marin County's population comprised 1.03% of California's population, while in 2022 it totaled 0.66% thereby yielding a -0.38% share-shift.
Page 6 of 13 Marin County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Marin County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Marin County's population grew at an annual rate of 0.44% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1973 (3.90%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1974 (-1.95%). In 2022, Marin County's population declined by -1.21% Page 7 of 13 Marin County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again shows the annual percent change in Marin County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Marin County's annual population growth rate averaged 0.93%. It averaged 0.28% throughout the 1980s, 0.72% in the 1990s, 0.19% throughout the 2000s, 0.48% during the 2010s, -0.90% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Page 8 of 13 Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Marin County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for California and the nation. As the chart reveals, Marin County's average annual population growth recorded under California's average throughout the 1970s (0.93% vs. 1.67%), recorded under California's average in the 1980s (0.28% vs. 2.31%), lagged California's average throughout the 1990s (0.72% vs. 1.38%), fell below California's average in the 2000s (0.19% vs. 0.99%), lagged California's average throughout the 2010s (0.48% vs. 0.68%), and posted below California's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.90% vs. -0.44%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Marin County lagged the nation throughout the 1970s (0.93% vs. 1.10%), fell below the nation in the 1980s (0.28% vs. 0.95%), lagged the nation during the 1990s (0.72% vs. 1.23%), trailed the nation over the 2000s (0.19% vs. 0.95%), lagged the nation during the 2010s (0.48% vs. 0.74%), and fell under the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.90% vs. 0.31%). Page 9 of 13
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