San Mateo County vs. California Comparative Trends Report: Population, 1969-2022 Briefing Report Outline: Page 1 of 13 Introduction San Mateo County: 2022 Population = 729,181 2022 Percent of State = 1.87% California: 2022 Population = 39,029,342 2022 Percent of U.S. = 11.71% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of San Mateo County with comparisons to California and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing San Mateo County vs. California's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Page 2 of 13 Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces San Mateo County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, San Mateo County's population rose from 552,230 in 1969 to 729,181 in 2022, for a net gain of 176,951, or 32.04%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Page 3 of 13 Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks California's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, California's population rose from 19,711,000 in 1969 to 39,029,342 in 2022, for a net gain of 19,318,342, or 98.01%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Page 4 of 13 Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows San Mateo County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with California, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. San Mateo County's overall population growth was 32.04% over 1969-2022 trailed California's increase of 98.01%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Page 5 of 13 Population as a Percent of the California Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of San Mateo County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to California's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than California's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, San Mateo County's population comprised 2.80% of California's population, while in 2022 it comprised 1.87% thereby yielding a -0.93% share-shift.
Page 6 of 13 San Mateo County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of San Mateo County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, San Mateo County's population grew at an annual rate of 0.53% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1983 (1.78%) and recorded its lowest growth in 2021 (-3.08%). In 2022, San Mateo County's population declined by -1.34% Page 7 of 13 San Mateo County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in San Mateo County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, San Mateo County's annual population growth rate averaged 0.59%. It averaged 0.99% in the 1980s, 0.87% in the 1990s, 0.13% during the 2000s, 0.74% in the 2010s, -1.73% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Page 8 of 13 Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for San Mateo County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for California and the nation. As the chart reveals, San Mateo County's average annual population growth lagged California's average in the 1970s (0.59% vs. 1.67%), trailed California's average in the 1980s (0.99% vs. 2.31%), trailed California's average during the 1990s (0.87% vs. 1.38%), recorded under California's average throughout the 2000s (0.13% vs. 0.99%), surpassed California's average throughout the 2010s (0.74% vs. 0.68%), and recorded under California's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-1.73% vs. -0.44%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, San Mateo County fell under the nation during the 1970s (0.59% vs. 1.10%), outpaced the nation during the 1980s (0.99% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation during the 1990s (0.87% vs. 1.23%), posted below the nation throughout the 2000s (0.13% vs. 0.95%), recorded above the nation over the 2010s (0.74% vs. 0.74%), and fell under the nation over 2020-2022 (-1.73% vs. 0.31%). Page 9 of 13
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