Tuolumne County vs. California Comparative Trends Report: Population, 1969-2022 Briefing Report Outline: Page 1 of 13 Introduction Tuolumne County: 2022 Population = 54,531 2022 Percent of State = 0.14% California: 2022 Population = 39,029,342 2022 Percent of U.S. = 11.71% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Tuolumne County with comparisons to California and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Tuolumne County vs. California's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Page 2 of 13 Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces Tuolumne County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Tuolumne County's population rose from 21,286 in 1969 to 54,531 in 2022, for a net gain of 33,245, or 156.18%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Page 3 of 13 Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces California's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, California's population rose from 19,711,000 in 1969 to 39,029,342 in 2022, for a net gain of 19,318,342, or 98.01%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Page 4 of 13 Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows Tuolumne County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with California, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Tuolumne County's overall population growth was 156.18% over 1969-2022 outpaced California's increase of 98.01%, and topped the United States' increase of 65.57%. Page 5 of 13 Population as a Percent of the California Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Tuolumne County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to California's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than California's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Tuolumne County's population comprised 0.11% of California's population, while in 2022 it totaled 0.14% thereby yielding a +0.03% share-shift.
Page 6 of 13 Tuolumne County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Tuolumne County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Tuolumne County's population grew at an annual rate of 1.81% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1978 (8.21%) and recorded its lowest growth in 2010 (-1.18%). In 2022, Tuolumne County's population declined by -0.97% Page 7 of 13 Tuolumne County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again depicts the annual percent change in Tuolumne County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Tuolumne County's annual population growth rate averaged 4.46%. It averaged 3.62% during the 1980s, 1.41% throughout the 1990s, 0.37% in the 2000s, -0.12% throughout the 2010s, -0.39% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Page 8 of 13 Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Tuolumne County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for California and the nation. As the chart reveals, Tuolumne County's average annual population growth outgained California's average during the 1970s (4.46% vs. 1.67%), outperformed California's average throughout the 1980s (3.62% vs. 2.31%), led California's average in the 1990s (1.41% vs. 1.38%), trailed California's average throughout the 2000s (0.37% vs. 0.99%), fell below California's average during the 2010s (-0.12% vs. 0.68%), and outpaced California's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (-0.39% vs. -0.44%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Tuolumne County topped the nation during the 1970s (4.46% vs. 1.10%), topped the nation over the 1980s (3.62% vs. 0.95%), topped the nation throughout the 1990s (1.41% vs. 1.23%), trailed the nation over the 2000s (0.37% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation during the 2010s (-0.12% vs. 0.74%), and trailed the nation over 2020-2022 (-0.39% vs. 0.31%). Page 9 of 13
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