Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Diagnosing Employment Growth
Across California Counties
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Employment Growth by County
California:
2010-2017 = 2.20%
2017 = 1.79%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of employment growth across all of California's 58 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this California Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the employment growth of California's 58 counties over the latest available year (2017) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2017). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Employment Growth by County
California:
2010-2017 = 2.20%
2017 = 1.79%
This figure displays the 58 counties of California as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2017), and the horizontal axis representing the employment growth rate for the near-term (2017).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 2.20%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.20% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (2.20%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 11 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2017, while 47 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 22 counties whose most recent (2017) employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (1.79%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 36 counties whose employment growth over 2017 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 58 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2017) and near-term (2017) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 2.20% over 2010-2017 and 1.79% over 2017:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are the eight counties whose average annual employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (2.20%) and near-term (1.79%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are the three counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.20%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the California average (1.79%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are the fourteen counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (2.20%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (1.79%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are the thirty-three counties whose average annual employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (2.20%) and near-term (1.79%).
   
 
Summary of California's 58 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(1.79%)
Above
(1.79%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.20%)
3
8
11
Below
(2.20%)
33
14
47
 
36
22
58
 
   
Leading Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Leading Counties
California:
2010-2017 = 2.20%
2017 = 1.79%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the California counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed California's average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 2.20%) as well as near-term (2017 = 1.79%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2017 as noted in the table below.
Of California's 58 counties, just 8 (14%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Slipping Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Slipping Counties
California:
2010-2017 = 2.20%
2017 = 1.79%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 3 California counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2017 = 2.20%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2017 = 1.79%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Only 3 ( 5%) of California's 58 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Gaining Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Gaining Counties
California:
2010-2017 = 2.20%
2017 = 1.79%
This figure shows the distribution of the 14 California counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2017 = 2.20%), while they outpaced California's average near-term (2017 = 1.79%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of California's 58 counties, 24% (14) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Lagging Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Lagging Counties
California:
2010-2017 = 2.20%
2017 = 1.79%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 33 California counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 2.20%) as well as near-term (2017 = 1.79%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
57% of California's counties, 33 of 58, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
   
 
California
Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2017
 
2017
 
 
Leading Counties
 
7
2.67
 
11
2.40
1,066,435
 
6
2.71
 
9
2.75
234,015
 
4
2.95
 
6
2.90
1,031,866
 
9
2.38
 
8
2.84
1,021,060
 
1
3.67
 
19
2.00
949,800
 
10
2.29
 
4
3.13
329,770
 
5
2.83
 
16
2.14
565,584
 
3
2.98
 
13
2.35
1,402,746
Slipping Counties
 
2
3.32
 
58
-8.58
1,214
 
11
2.22
 
36
1.28
6,438,487
 
8
2.38
 
48
0.28
24,847
Gaining Counties
 
54
-0.29
 
5
3.05
18,111
 
41
1.16
 
12
2.35
17,066
 
14
2.08
 
20
1.94
566,859
 
29
1.58
 
1
3.66
91,651
 
46
0.75
 
14
2.26
8,406
 
16
1.99
 
7
2.88
103,945
 
47
0.68
 
2
3.42
10,246
 
12
2.16
 
17
2.11
2,252,645
 
57
-0.48
 
22
1.87
9,765
 
20
1.87
 
21
1.88
2,112,512
 
18
1.93
 
15
2.24
173,773
 
25
1.69
 
18
2.01
42,846
 
24
1.72
 
3
3.19
26,038
 
36
1.30
 
10
2.40
28,711
Lagging Counties
 
22
1.85
 
24
1.78
114,627
 
34
1.33
 
50
0.05
11,747
 
53
-0.13
 
53
-0.39
10,877
 
17
1.98
 
23
1.78
495,917
 
39
1.17
 
52
-0.21
12,773
 
44
0.77
 
31
1.59
72,735
 
38
1.20
 
51
0.00
79,738
 
52
0.05
 
54
-0.55
10,409
 
15
2.05
 
46
0.82
410,161
 
42
1.04
 
29
1.60
61,723
 
48
0.60
 
25
1.70
24,823
 
55
-0.39
 
55
-0.59
12,962
 
35
1.33
 
32
1.54
64,828
 
32
1.47
 
39
1.17
198,176
 
43
0.93
 
44
0.91
49,534
 
56
-0.48
 
57
-2.13
4,036
 
23
1.81
 
45
0.90
250,413
 
13
2.14
 
28
1.60
104,826
 
37
1.24
 
33
1.43
55,303
 
30
1.52
 
34
1.39
869,288
 
33
1.36
 
38
1.17
277,989
 
31
1.49
 
43
1.00
156,392
 
45
0.75
 
42
1.03
91,443
 
58
-0.66
 
56
-0.70
1,128
 
50
0.23
 
35
1.37
21,465
 
28
1.59
 
30
1.59
197,480
 
21
1.87
 
27
1.65
304,489
 
19
1.87
 
26
1.69
246,865
 
51
0.15
 
41
1.10
4,796
 
27
1.59
 
47
0.75
207,171
 
49
0.50
 
49
0.06
25,992
 
40
1.17
 
37
1.18
468,725
 
26
1.66
 
40
1.15
137,571
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.20
 
1.79
23,584,800
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.54
 
1.43
196,132,200
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_LSGL
 
   
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