Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Finance and Insurance Earnings Growth
Across California Counties
Real* Finance and Insurance
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Finance and Insurance
Earnings Growth
California:
2010-2022 = 4.30%
2022 = -5.10%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real finance and insurance earnings growth across all of California's 58 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this California Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real finance and insurance earnings growth of California's 58 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Finance and Insurance
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Finance and Insurance
Earnings Growth
California:
2010-2022 = 4.30%
2022 = -5.10%
This figure displays the 58 counties of California as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real finance and insurance earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real finance and insurance earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 4.30%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 4.30% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (4.30%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 12 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 40 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 46 counties whose most recent (2022) real finance and insurance earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-5.10%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 6 counties whose real finance and insurance earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 58 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 4.30% over 2010-2022 and -5.10% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (4.30%) and near-term (-5.10%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (4.30%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the California average (-5.10%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (4.30%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (-5.10%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (4.30%) and near-term (-5.10%).
   
 
Summary of California's 58 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(-5.10%)
Above
(-5.10%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(4.30%)
4
8
12
Below
(4.30%)
2
38
40
 
6
46
52
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
California:
2010-2022 = 4.30%
2022 = -5.10%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the California counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed California's average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 4.30%) as well as near-term (2022 = -5.10%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of California's 58 counties, just 8 (14%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
California:
2010-2022 = 4.30%
2022 = -5.10%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 4 California counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 4.30%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = -5.10%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 4 (7%) of California's 58 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
California:
2010-2022 = 4.30%
2022 = -5.10%
This figure shows the distribution of the 38 California counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 4.30%), while they outpaced California's average near-term (2022 = -5.10%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of California's 58 counties, 66% (38) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
California:
2010-2022 = 4.30%
2022 = -5.10%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 2 California counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 4.30%) as well as near-term (2022 = -5.10%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real finance and insurance earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
3% of California's counties, 2 of 58, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
California
Real* Finance and Insurance Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
9
5.89
 
12
4.05
3,802,574
 
1
9.17
 
9
4.90
10,079
 
6
6.52
 
1
19.75
569,067
 
2
8.37
 
18
3.08
132,673
 
11
4.49
 
49
-4.71
335,719
 
3
7.66
 
45
-4.01
7,360,466
 
12
4.31
 
38
-1.96
218,365
 
7
6.40
 
4
12.16
84,864
Slipping Counties
 
4
7.38
 
55
-15.65
150,519
 
10
4.50
 
52
-8.16
1,283,424
 
8
5.91
 
56
-20.98
22,003,515
 
5
7.26
 
54
-13.76
6,368,934
Gaining Counties
 
40
1.71
 
17
3.16
22,203
 
34
2.52
 
11
4.26
11,917
 
20
4.04
 
10
4.88
3,955,974
 
43
1.36
 
3
14.02
6,042
 
32
2.63
 
24
1.54
1,069,982
 
46
0.75
 
36
-1.10
60,065
 
49
-0.09
 
31
-0.04
5,448
 
30
2.84
 
27
0.98
546,466
 
24
3.44
 
26
1.33
55,951
 
37
2.15
 
34
-1.02
16,440
 
28
2.93
 
19
2.64
9,922
 
15
4.23
 
16
3.43
30,879,538
 
18
4.12
 
13
3.87
43,496
 
38
2.05
 
23
1.94
1,132,346
 
45
1.20
 
7
8.53
49,101
 
48
0.47
 
8
5.92
361,947
 
14
4.26
 
33
-0.50
275,603
 
27
3.01
 
47
-4.47
88,831
 
17
4.19
 
40
-2.50
17,370,559
 
47
0.65
 
5
10.56
11,786
 
19
4.06
 
6
9.23
1,525,882
 
31
2.76
 
15
3.54
3,723,976
 
29
2.88
 
48
-4.60
28,353
 
26
3.11
 
28
0.82
1,632,252
 
22
3.58
 
43
-3.67
8,110,406
 
42
1.37
 
39
-2.20
567,256
 
23
3.58
 
30
0.15
655,933
 
21
3.75
 
32
-0.29
294,212
 
44
1.25
 
20
2.62
16,277
 
33
2.55
 
42
-3.16
399,698
 
16
4.23
 
21
2.44
799,115
 
36
2.31
 
37
-1.69
369,045
 
39
1.84
 
35
-1.02
18,754
 
35
2.37
 
29
0.58
271,140
 
51
-0.51
 
14
3.76
20,517
 
41
1.70
 
46
-4.05
1,782,503
 
50
-0.17
 
44
-3.75
121,359
 
52
-2.69
 
41
-2.65
9,308
Lagging Counties
 
25
3.43
 
50
-5.48
213,452
 
13
4.27
 
53
-8.19
12,988
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
2
14.29
8
 
U
U
 
S
S
1,258
 
U
U
 
51
-7.93
2,646
 
U
U
 
25
1.37
3,917
 
U
U
 
22
1.96
52
 
U
U
 
S
S
2,231
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4.30
 
-5.10
118,876,354
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4.33
 
3.00
1,078,856,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_611000_LSGL
 
   
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