Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Wholesale Trade Employment Growth
Across California Counties
Wholesale Trade
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Wholesale Trade
Employment Growth
California:
2010-2022 = 0.51%
2022 = 4.05%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of wholesale trade employment growth across all of California's 58 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this California Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the wholesale trade employment growth of California's 58 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Wholesale Trade
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Wholesale Trade
Employment Growth
California:
2010-2022 = 0.51%
2022 = 4.05%
This figure displays the 58 counties of California as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual wholesale trade employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the wholesale trade employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term wholesale trade employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 0.51%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 0.51% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual wholesale trade employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (0.51%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 23 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 13 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 17 counties whose most recent (2022) wholesale trade employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (4.05%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 19 counties whose wholesale trade employment growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 58 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 0.51% over 2010-2022 and 4.05% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual wholesale trade employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (0.51%) and near-term (4.05%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual wholesale trade employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (0.51%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the California average (4.05%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual wholesale trade employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (0.51%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (4.05%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual wholesale trade employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (0.51%) and near-term (4.05%).
   
 
Summary of California's 58 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(4.05%)
Above
(4.05%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(0.51%)
9
14
23
Below
(0.51%)
10
3
13
 
19
17
36
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
California:
2010-2022 = 0.51%
2022 = 4.05%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the California counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed California's average annual wholesale trade employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 0.51%) as well as near-term (2022 = 4.05%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual wholesale trade employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of California's 58 counties, 14 (24%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
California:
2010-2022 = 0.51%
2022 = 4.05%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 9 California counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual wholesale trade employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 0.51%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 4.05%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual wholesale trade employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 9 (16%) of California's 58 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
California:
2010-2022 = 0.51%
2022 = 4.05%
This figure shows the distribution of the 3 California counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual wholesale trade employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 0.51%), while they outpaced California's average near-term (2022 = 4.05%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual wholesale trade employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of California's 58 counties, only 5% (3) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
California:
2010-2022 = 0.51%
2022 = 4.05%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 10 California counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual wholesale trade employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 0.51%) as well as near-term (2022 = 4.05%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual wholesale trade employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
17% of California's counties, 10 of 58, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
California
Wholesale Trade Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
7
2.18
 
3
15.81
249
 
6
2.23
 
12
6.74
18,601
 
15
1.01
 
14
5.72
2,385
 
5
2.40
 
13
5.94
910
 
1
3.21
 
21
4.08
1,249
 
14
1.09
 
17
4.95
6,721
 
3
2.90
 
22
4.05
34,573
 
12
1.23
 
6
12.20
59,274
 
11
1.25
 
19
4.51
13,389
 
10
1.41
 
2
22.30
16,382
 
9
1.93
 
18
4.77
6,900
 
23
0.51
 
20
4.14
5,104
 
2
3.15
 
1
30.46
7,046
 
22
0.56
 
15
5.72
16,163
Slipping Counties
 
8
2.08
 
34
0.55
2,932
 
19
0.84
 
26
2.59
396
 
17
0.93
 
38
-2.15
955
 
20
0.70
 
31
0.88
115
 
18
0.92
 
37
-1.43
5,714
 
16
1.00
 
28
1.63
20,292
 
4
2.62
 
30
1.11
49,500
 
13
1.11
 
42
-5.17
2,181
 
21
0.67
 
39
-2.17
9,250
Gaining Counties
 
26
0.44
 
16
4.97
10,151
 
33
-1.37
 
8
9.63
205
 
31
-0.68
 
11
6.77
4,417
Lagging Counties
 
30
-0.56
 
29
1.32
39,111
 
25
0.44
 
33
0.75
670
 
35
-2.34
 
35
0.00
111
 
27
0.24
 
25
2.81
253,705
 
28
-0.22
 
27
2.07
94,090
 
34
-1.42
 
44
-12.77
82
 
29
-0.30
 
36
-0.94
12,757
 
24
0.50
 
40
-2.64
3,464
 
32
-1.36
 
24
3.70
34,291
 
36
-2.38
 
31
0.88
230
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
45
-100.00
0
 
U
U
 
7
12.20
138
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
9
8.66
1,481
 
U
U
 
4
14.91
1,649
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
10
7.77
305
 
U
U
 
S
S
7,140
 
U
U
 
23
3.85
1,565
 
U
U
 
41
-3.81
379
 
U
U
 
43
-11.43
31
 
U
U
 
5
14.74
6,327
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.51
 
4.05
773,657
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.80
 
5.56
6,757,300
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1500N_510600_LSGL
 
   
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