Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Employment Growth
Across California Counties
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Employment Growth
California:
2010-2017 = 2.00%
2017 = 2.68%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real estate and rental and leasing employment growth across all of California's 58 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this California Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real estate and rental and leasing employment growth of California's 58 counties over the latest available year (2017) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2017). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2017 and 2017
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Employment Growth
California:
2010-2017 = 2.00%
2017 = 2.68%
This figure displays the 58 counties of California as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2017), and the horizontal axis representing the real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate for the near-term (2017).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real estate and rental and leasing employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 2.00%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.00% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (2.00%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 5 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2017, while 49 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 23 counties whose most recent (2017) real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.68%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 31 counties whose real estate and rental and leasing employment growth over 2017 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 58 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2017) and near-term (2017) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 2.00% over 2010-2017 and 2.68% over 2017:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (2.00%) and near-term (2.68%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.00%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the California average (2.68%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (2.00%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (2.68%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (2.00%) and near-term (2.68%).
   
 
Summary of California's 58 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(2.68%)
Above
(2.68%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.00%)
1
4
5
Below
(2.00%)
30
19
49
 
31
23
54
 
   
Leading Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Leading Counties
California:
2010-2017 = 2.00%
2017 = 2.68%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the California counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed California's average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 2.00%) as well as near-term (2017 = 2.68%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of California's 58 counties, just 4 (7%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Slipping Counties
California:
2010-2017 = 2.00%
2017 = 2.68%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 1 California county classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2017 = 2.00%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2017 = 2.68%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Only 1 (2%) of California's 58 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Gaining Counties
California:
2010-2017 = 2.00%
2017 = 2.68%
This figure shows the distribution of the 19 California counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2017 = 2.00%), while they outpaced California's average near-term (2017 = 2.68%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
Of California's 58 counties, 33% (19) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2017 vs. 2010-2017 Averages
Lagging Counties
California:
2010-2017 = 2.00%
2017 = 2.68%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 30 California counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth both long-term (2010-2017 = 2.00%) as well as near-term (2017 = 2.68%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real estate and rental and leasing employment growth rate over 2010-2017.
52% of California's counties, 30 of 58, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
California
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2017
 
2017
 
 
Leading Counties
 
4
2.03
 
13
3.09
1,401
 
1
3.06
 
20
2.83
368,077
 
5
2.02
 
3
4.02
16,239
 
2
2.98
 
5
3.84
43,736
Slipping Counties
 
3
2.19
 
43
1.56
29,278
Gaining Counties
 
32
1.09
 
10
3.26
729
 
17
1.56
 
16
2.96
34,434
 
23
1.28
 
8
3.35
6,024
 
12
1.75
 
21
2.82
17,418
 
40
0.70
 
6
3.82
2,693
 
22
1.29
 
18
2.89
320
 
49
-0.61
 
19
2.84
942
 
31
1.09
 
1
5.98
815
 
26
1.23
 
17
2.94
9,171
 
52
-1.14
 
4
3.99
417
 
24
1.27
 
15
2.99
49,660
 
28
1.20
 
12
3.19
34,048
 
42
0.49
 
7
3.68
12,972
 
11
1.75
 
23
2.68
9,658
 
27
1.22
 
9
3.30
59,134
 
41
0.67
 
11
3.20
3,488
 
43
0.49
 
14
3.02
7,106
 
19
1.46
 
2
4.83
14,987
 
45
0.34
 
22
2.77
1,926
Lagging Counties
 
13
1.69
 
27
2.50
40,635
 
39
0.78
 
37
2.10
4,612
 
53
-1.47
 
26
2.51
1,022
 
38
0.87
 
44
1.54
329
 
34
1.07
 
45
1.53
331
 
54
-1.75
 
48
1.26
242
 
16
1.57
 
54
-1.51
1,889
 
20
1.31
 
39
1.80
12,807
 
48
-0.61
 
46
1.53
265
 
50
-0.82
 
53
-1.13
1,917
 
15
1.61
 
42
1.60
14,683
 
46
0.24
 
28
2.47
290
 
35
0.99
 
38
1.86
2,024
 
47
-0.11
 
40
1.68
2,967
 
33
1.07
 
51
0.47
4,079
 
8
1.90
 
30
2.45
3,758
 
6
1.94
 
35
2.20
149,310
 
9
1.86
 
41
1.67
1,156
 
25
1.23
 
24
2.62
36,775
 
18
1.53
 
29
2.46
110,298
 
14
1.66
 
50
0.99
14,567
 
37
0.97
 
32
2.34
7,685
 
51
-0.84
 
31
2.41
721
 
44
0.42
 
47
1.30
9,302
 
7
1.92
 
49
1.11
727
 
10
1.77
 
52
0.26
6,203
 
36
0.99
 
36
2.18
1,358
 
30
1.13
 
34
2.25
23,688
 
29
1.18
 
33
2.33
4,694
 
21
1.30
 
25
2.56
640
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
55
-1.61
61
 
U
U
 
S
S
142
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.00
 
2.68
1,184,055
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.46
 
2.68
9,105,900
November 2018
REAP_PI_CA1500N_511100_LSGL
 
   
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